Trump’s Ukraine Peace Promise Faces Reality Check: Resolution May Take Months
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump now acknowledge that resolving the Ukraine conflict could take months or longer, a sharp contrast to his campaign promise of securing peace on his first day in office.
Shifting Timelines and Challenges
Two Trump associates who discussed the Ukraine war with the president-elect revealed to Reuters that the initial “Day One” promise was more campaign rhetoric than a realistic timeline. They described it as a miscalculation of the complexity of the conflict and the challenges of setting up a new administration.
This revised outlook aligns with comments made by Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg. In a recent interview, Kellogg mentioned a goal of resolving the conflict within 100 days. However, experts like John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, labeled even that extended timeline as overly optimistic.
“For this to succeed, Trump needs to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that there are consequences for prolonging the conflict,” Herbst said.
Campaign Promises vs. Diplomatic Realities
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly vowed to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia “very quickly,” even claiming he could do it on his first day in office. However, his rhetoric began shifting in late October, as he admitted the challenge was more complex than anticipated.
In a December press conference, Trump acknowledged that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict might be even more difficult than achieving a ceasefire in Gaza.
Russia’s Mixed Signals
The Kremlin has expressed interest in direct talks with Trump but has dismissed some proposals from his advisers as impractical. Russia’s UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, referred to these ideas as “nothing of interest.”
Meanwhile, Moscow’s battlefield advances in Ukraine have strengthened its position, potentially incentivizing Putin to delay negotiations while seeking more territorial gains.
Possible Peace Plan Framework
Although Trump’s peace plan remains under development, his advisers reportedly support freezing the current battle lines and ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine, at least temporarily. Some have also proposed creating a demilitarized zone patrolled by European forces as a security guarantee for Ukraine.
Diplomatic Efforts in Progress
Efforts to establish a peace deal have been sporadic, reflecting the challenges of navigating complex international negotiations. Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Kellogg, recently postponed a planned visit to Kyiv, citing concerns about violating the Logan Act, which prohibits private citizens from negotiating with foreign governments.
Incoming officials in the Trump administration are still determining roles and responsibilities regarding geopolitical issues, which could further delay progress on the Ukraine conflict.
Conclusion
As Trump prepares to take office, his administration faces mounting pressure to address the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the campaign promises of a swift resolution have given way to a more pragmatic approach, the road to peace remains uncertain, with significant hurdles to overcome in the months ahead.